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• Bitcoin a une résistance et un soutien à 33 700 $ et 29 000 $ respectivement.
• La CTB suit une ligne de résistance descendante.
• Les indicateurs à court terme montrent quelques signes d’un retournement haussier.

Le prix du Bitcoin (BTC) se consolide depuis le rejet initial du 25 janvier.

La direction de la tendance à court terme du Bitcoin Up n’est pas claire, mais un rebond vers la zone des 33 700 $ semble être le scénario le plus probable.

Le bitcoin poursuit son indécision

Après le rejet du 25 janvier, la CTB a fait preuve d’une certaine force en créant un chandelier avec une longue mèche inférieure et une fermeture légèrement haussière.

Néanmoins, les mèches de chaque côté sont un signe d’indécision. Cela suggère une consolidation plus poussée avant un mouvement significatif dans une direction.

Les indicateurs techniques sont baissiers et la CTB s’échange juste en dessous de la zone de résistance à 33 700 dollars. Inversement, la zone de soutien la plus proche se trouve à 29 000 dollars.

L’approche de la résistance

Bitcoin se négocie probablement dans une sorte de canal parallèle descendant, qui est généralement une structure corrective. Actuellement, la CTB est confrontée à une résistance du milieu du canal et à une possible ligne de résistance descendante, qui a été validée plusieurs fois jusqu’à ce point.

La CTB devrait dépasser 33 200 dollars pour dépasser les deux résistances et sortir de façon décisive. Les indicateurs techniques deviennent progressivement haussiers mais n’ont pas encore confirmé la possibilité d’une rupture.

Le graphique en deux heures montre des signes de renversement, car le RSI a généré une certaine divergence haussière. Il serait logique que la CTB marque au moins une fois de plus la ligne de résistance, avant de décider d’une rupture ou d’un effondrement.

Comptage des vagues de la CTB

Alors que le compte à long terme est baissier, projetant une baisse vers 28 000 $, le compte à moyen terme suggère qu’une autre hausse est probable avant que la CTB ne tombe vers la cible.

Le meilleur scénario serait que la sous-vague C (orange) augmente jusqu’au sommet du canal, à 38 000 dollars. Cependant, il est tout à fait possible que la sous-onde atteigne un sommet moins élevé puisque le mouvement est encore dans sa phase initiale.

La partie du mouvement qui est la plus facilement discernable est l’appartement irrégulier d’hier, ce qui suggère que la CTB n’a pas encore fini de le corriger. Il serait donc logique que la CTB balaie les creux d’hier avant de remonter éventuellement. Il est très probable que la sous-onde C susmentionnée soit une diagonale de fin.

Conclusion

Bien que la direction de la tendance ne soit pas claire, le scénario le plus probable suggère que Bitcoin rebondisse une fois de plus avant qu’une baisse significative ne se produise.

What are the prospects for Ethereum in 2021?

What a year 2020 for Ethereum! Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0, DeFi and democratisation, Ethereum could hardly have dreamt of anything better. Now that we have just entered the new year, we are able to look a little more closely at what we expect for 2021, and how the year of Ethereum could go.

DeFi continues on its way

Haaaa the DeFi, how to miss this ecosystem after its performance in 2020! In view of the constant evolution of the DeFi in 2020, there is a good chance that the ecosystem will continue to be the talk of the town in 2021.

Obviously, the year 2021 could turn the current ranking Bitcoin News Trader of DeFi projects upside down, with the arrival of new projects, or the evolution of others.

Unfortunately, the craze for DeFi in 2020 has also led to a very large number of hacks and attacks of all kinds. Among these attacks, the reentrancy attack was one of the most common.

Thus, for the year 2021, we can hope that smart contract developers and investors will learn from the mistakes of the past and that better practices will be put in place. For example, the systematic auditing of smart contracts, the regular absence of which has unfortunately been the cause of too many hacks in 2020.

This maturation will be necessary for Ethereum. If the community as a whole does not better apply best practices, the DeFi on Ethereum could well see its reputation tarnished once again.

Phase 1 of Ethereum 2.0

It is impossible to talk about Ethereum without talking about Ethereum 2.0. Indeed, Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 was rolled out on 1 December last year.

This phase is the first of a series of three phases spread over several years.

Thus, after phase 0, which aimed to set up the beacon chain, the backbone of Ethereum 2.0. Phase 1 will introduce the shard chains.

These shard chains, or simply shards, have the particularity of dividing the network into a multitude of sub-networks, responsible for independently processing their data. As such, they are an integral part of Ethereum’s scaling strategy.

According to the announcements of the Ethereum Foundation, phase 1 could be launched in 2021. However, Ethereum 2.0 subscribes to delays and it is not excluded that these delays will not be met.

Democratisation of second layer solutions

Although an excellent year for Ethereum, the year 2020 has nevertheless seen its failures. For example, the network became congested too many times, leading to significant increases in transaction costs.

These periods of paralysis for the network have had many negative effects and, in addition to annoying users, have resulted in the loss of several million dollars.

Thus, we can hope that 2021 will be the year of the democratization of second layer solutions. Indeed, although Ethereum 2.0 is supposed to solve Ethereum’s scalability and performance problems, this upgrade will not be fully deployed until 2022, or even 2023. Therefore, it is essential to put in place solutions while waiting for its deployment.

Multiple data points show that investors are strongly bullish on the Ethereum price even after today’s strong rejection of USD 1,160.

On January 4th, the price of Ether (ETH) rose to USD 1,160, followed by a 24% correction in the following 4 hours.

What is clear is that investors are eagerly awaiting the launch of CME’s ETH futures which is scheduled for February 8th. Another factor driving the current rally is that Ether’s miners‘ balances reached a two-year low, a scenario that some analysts see as bullish.

The phenomenal growth of the total blocked value in DeFi projects has also played a role, especially considering that the metric reached USD 17.5 billion last week.

For the moment, positive news flow and solid fundamentals seem to be in play for Ether, but it is still important to try to understand if the recent drop reflects a local high potential or if it was simply a new test of $900 as a new support level.

In addition to price action and technical analysis, investors should also look at the network usage metrics in the Ethereum network. An excellent place to start is by analyzing transactions and value transfers.

The graph above shows that the indicator exceeds $4 billion in daily transactions, a 73% increase compared to $2.6 billion the previous month. This remarkable increase in the value of transactions and transfers reflects the strength of the signals and also suggests that Ether’s price is sustainable at current levels.

Withdrawals from the Exchanges are paused for now

The increase in withdrawals from exchanges can be due to multiple reasons, including staking, yield farming and buyers sending coins into cold storage. Generally, a steady flow of net deposits indicates a willingness to sell in the short term.

From December 1 to December 19, exchanges faced 600,000 ETH in net withdrawals. This movement indicates a potential accumulation of whales, either by transferring to cold wallets or by placing those Bitcoin Profit scam in the DeFi ecosystem.

It is worth noting that during the last two weeks there has been some stabilization. Sales activity was expected as the price of the Ether peaked and this led to larger deposits. Therefore, the indicator remains slightly positive.

The futures premium peaked, but nothing abnormal has occurred

Professional traders tend to dominate longer term futures contracts with set expiration dates. By measuring the spending gap between futures and the regular spot market, a trader can gauge the level of optimism in the market.

3-month futures should generally be traded at a premium of 1.5% or more compared to regular spot exchanges. Any time this indicator fades or becomes negative, it is a worrying warning sign. This situation is known as backwardation and indicates that the market is becoming bearish.

The chart above shows that the indicator peaked at 6.4% on January 4th when Ether touched its highest price since May 2018. The current rate above 4.7% equates to a 20% annualized premium and is significantly above the levels seen in previous months. This data shows that despite the recent fall of USD 280, professional traders still have confidence in Ether’s price potential.

Spot volume soared during the rally

In addition to monitoring futures contracts, profitable traders also track volume in the spot market. Breaking resistance levels with low volumes is intriguing because low volumes usually indicate a lack of confidence. Therefore, major price changes must be accompanied by solid trading volume.

The previous two days saw an impressive average volume of $8 billion and this is considerably higher than the trend of the past few weeks. The new price highs accompanied by volume peaks are an excellent indicator of sustainable price levels.

This event is especially true considering that the recent 42% movement occurred since December 30th, when the traditional markets closed. If there had been low volume days recently, investors would have wondered what was really behind the increase to USD 1,160.

Buy/Sell Option Ratio

By measuring whether there is more activity in call or put options, the overall market sentiment can be determined. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, while put options are used for bearish ones.

A buy/sell ratio of 0.70 indicates that the open interest of put options lags behind the more bullish call options by 30% and therefore the sentiment is bullish.

Since December 25th, investors have been trading a higher volume of put options. Therefore, the indicator increased to 0.81 from 0.65. This indicates a reversal of the trend from a more upward movement that lasted two weeks. Despite the protection-seeking movement, put options still lag behind the more bullish call options by 19%.

This data is very encouraging, considering that Ether has recovered by 60% since December 25th, but there are no signs that investors have opted for more neutral to bearish strategies (put options).

Despite some signs of weakness after Ether hit its high of USD 1,160 on January 4th, each of the five indicators discussed above has maintained a bullish level.

When Ether managed to recover quickly from her recent fall of less than USD 900, investors gained more confidence that the uptrend has not been broken.

A new agency is to coordinate the use of blockchain technology within US government agencies.

A new bill filed on Thursday under the acronym H.R.9067 seeks to „coordinate“ the use of blockchain technology within the US federal government.

The bill, filed by Representative Darren Soto, a Democratic Party representative for the US state of Florida, provides that „the Department of Commerce shall establish a department to coordinate any use of blockchain technology within the federal government, provided that such use does not involve defence“.

On 31 December, the bill was already submitted to the Parliamentary Committee on Energy and Commerce.

Although the exact content of the draft is still unknown, its author could possibly allow conclusions to be drawn about the intended areas of application for blockchain technology.

In recent months, Soto had increasingly shown himself to be an advocate for cryptocurrencies, which he now also allows for political donations directed at him, and blockchain technology.

The politician, who is co-chair of the Parliamentary Blockchain Council, confirmed in a previous interview with Cointelegraph that he plans to soon incorporate the technology as an alternative way to transmit absentee ballots. The US Post Office had previously filed a patent to that effect. In response, Soto said in the interview:

„I could imagine something like this being used very soon, possibly as early as the next election.“

Then again, last September, Soto had announced that his „nearly two years of effort“ in the parliamentary Committee on Energy and Commerce had paid off by finally passing the Digital Taxonomy Act, which would, among other things, explore the use of blockchain technology by government agencies. The bill H.R.9067 aims to follow up on this and ensure faster adoption of the technology.

Advocacy for cryptocurrencies has been a particular focus of Soto’s recently, as he is one of the nine parliamentarians who have criticised the US Treasury Department for rushing to file a new crypto bill. In the crypto industry, this had caused a strong headwind, and even a possible lawsuit against the ministry is in the air.